Mathematical Model Predicts the Population Growth

I am attempting to develop a mathematical model that predicts the population growth in Greenland between the years 2015 and 2035 by using a recursion equation. To do this:

1.               Assume the data used from CIA Factbook is correct. Explanation: This assumption is reasonable because the CIA Factbook is a government generate source of facts which implies it is reliable. It is necessary because this data is the data used to determine parameters for the model.

2.               Assume Greenland does not enter a war, have a calamitous event such as a natural disaster or famine. This assumption is reasonable because Greenland has shown a trend in its population that does not include any steep rises or falls in population that would be associated with calamitous events. This assumption is necessary because the model I am capable of creating could not accommodate any extreme outliers in the data (ex: a single year with an extremely high death rate.).

            In order to create an appropriate model for Greenland’s population, the variables needed to be defined. In this instance: = total population of Greenland after  years; = number of years  

            Effective parameters were also needed to generate the model for Greenland’s population. After reviewing the CIA World Factbook it was determined that Greenland has a current population growth rate of zero person. Within the model, a 0% population growth rate can be represented by :

The parameter of was also needed for this model, where represents the total number added to Greenland’s population every year. Information given on the CIA World Factbook was also used to determine the by using a birth rate of 14.48/1000 people, a death rate of 8.49/1000 people, and a migration rate of -5.98/1000 people.