EVN OF THE AR5 CONCLUSION OF ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE

5513 WORDSALUATIO

The IPCC fifth assessment (AR5) was released in its entirety in November of 2014 demonstrating that human-induced climate change was occurring. The findings were formed on unprecedented advances in climate modelling and several predictive climate scenarios (Cubasch, 2013). The models considered the complexities of earth systems science and the intricacy socio-political policy and human behaviour has on earth’s climate response (Cubasch, 2013). The AR5 concluded that long-term and near-term mitigation and adaption measures were needed and that inherent uncertainties and climate science knowledge gaps, were becoming a significant challenging for governments in implementing mitigation and adaption measures (Collins, 2013).

This report will first examine the science that forms the basis for the AR5 conclusion of anthropogenic climate change. Extrapolating climate data to find climate trends involves deliberate assumptions resulting in uncertainties. This paper explores the uncertainty in climate change forecast between global climate models, emission scenarios, climate sensitivity, and feedbacks, which leads to how uncertainties are becoming a challenge for governments and organisations to implement mitigation and adaptions measures. Finally, this report also looks at Australia’s alpine region to demonstrate the forecast, impacts, and risks for snow dependent regions.

2.0           Scientific basis for anthropogenic climate change

To surmise climate forecasts, past and present climates must be understood. Therefore, the earth’s complex climate systems must be observed, and data from the atmosphere, oceans, and terrestrial areas collected. In doing so, several technologies have been deployed, ranging from ground-ba